Sun, Mar 17, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 7, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 113 | 29 | 416 | 738 |
| OTT | 17 | 114 | 011 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:19CARDmitry OrlovAssists: Brendan Lemieux, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:50OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Parker Kelly · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:03CAREvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Brady Skjei, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 4:51OTTTim StützleAssists: Thomas Chabot, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 19:38CARSeth JarvisGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 4:41CARJalen ChatfieldAssists: Sebastian Aho, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 7:14CARDmitry OrlovAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 8:52CARJake GuentzelAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.05 xG6–2
- P3 13:07CARBrendan LemieuxAssists: Brent Burns, Jaccob Slavin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG7–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:05CARBrendan Lemieux: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:04CARJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00OTTDominik Kubalik: Holding2 min
- P2 0:41OTTMathieu Joseph: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:34OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ostapchuk won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Aho – Jarvis13:46
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Noesen – Lemieux – Kotkaniemi8:59
xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Necas – Svechnikov13:07
xG 0.84–0.80 (51%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook9:13
xG 0.17–0.44 (28%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield14:08
xG 1.20–0.16 (88%)attempts 24–11goals 4–0
- Burns – Slavin15:09
xG 0.69–0.78 (47%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce16:38
xG 0.69–0.82 (46%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Pinto12:28
xG 0.82–0.35 (70%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Katchouk – Kastelic – Kelly8:10
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Joseph – Ostapchuk3:33
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Greig – Ostapchuk6:11
xG 0.03–0.12 (20%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Brannstrom15:01
xG 1.24–0.28 (82%)attempts 19–19goals 2–0
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker14:44
xG 0.52–0.92 (36%)attempts 14–17goals 0–2
- Sanderson – Zub16:01
xG 0.26–1.12 (19%)attempts 6–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).