Sun, Mar 17, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14 | 112 | 112 | 328 |
| PIT | 315 | 211 | 112 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:10PITReilly SmithAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:39DETLucas RaymondAssists: David Perron, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 18:53PITSidney CrosbyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 19:16PITValtteri PuustinenAssists: Reilly Smith, Lars Eller · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 9:34PITMichael BuntingGWGAssists: Valtteri Puustinen, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
- P2 17:35DETChristian FischerAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 19:39PITLars EllerPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 16:37DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 19:34PITDrew O'ConnorENAssists: Bryan Rust, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:44DETAustin Czarnik: Holding2 min
- P1 8:09DETAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:32PITDrew O'Connor: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:01DETMichael Rasmussen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:12DETLucas Raymond: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:21PITDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Veleno won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Compher – DeBrincat9:55
xG 0.74–0.49 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- Copp – Fischer – Rasmussen7:21
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Perron – Veleno – Raymond11:32
xG 0.53–0.76 (41%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Fabbri – Sprong – Czarnik7:29
xG 0.16–0.50 (24%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot15:06
xG 1.15–0.65 (64%)attempts 23–16goals 2–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere12:05
xG 0.61–0.83 (42%)attempts 10–18goals 0–2
- Walman – Seider12:29
xG 0.18–0.67 (21%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith – Puustinen8:18
xG 0.47–0.05 (90%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Carter – Acciari – Bemstrom8:41
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rakell – Bunting9:30
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor12:02
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJoseph – Ludvig10:21
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson16:54
xG 0.87–0.83 (51%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Graves14:16
xG 0.73–1.00 (42%)attempts 14–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).