Tue, Mar 19, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 2, Nashville Predators 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 19 | 03 | 220 |
| NSH | 117 | 39 | 414 | 840 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:18NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 17:18SJSMikael GranlundAssists: Klim Kostin, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:46SJSMario FerraroAssists: Thomas Bordeleau, Justin Bailey · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 9:37NSHJason ZuckerAssists: Colton Sissons, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- P2 15:26NSHMichael McCarronGWGAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 17:50NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 10:35NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–5
- P3 14:13NSHMark JankowskiAssists: Tyson Barrie, Anthony Beauvillier · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–6
- P3 14:43NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–7
- P3 16:16NSHTommy NovakAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Mark Jankowski · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–8
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:45SJSKlim Kostin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:08NSHJason Zucker: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:17SJSMario Ferraro: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sturm won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Bailey – Sturm – Bordeleau11:24
xG 0.34–0.69 (33%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Granlund – Kostin – Zetterlund11:18
xG 0.17–0.62 (21%)attempts 7–10goals 1–3
- Kunin – Zadina – Eklund12:02
xG 0.04–1.63 (2%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Burroughs – Ferraro14:47
xG 0.41–1.19 (26%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Addison9:37
xG 0.19–1.14 (14%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
- Rutta – Thrun13:39
xG 0.03–1.47 (2%)attempts 11–20goals 0–5
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Sissons – Evangelista5:56
xG 1.05–0.19 (85%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Zucker – Sissons – Beauvillier4:32
xG 0.87–0.11 (89%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith10:29
xG 0.86–0.25 (78%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Beauvillier6:01
xG 0.25–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Josi10:01
xG 1.29–0.12 (92%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Barrie11:01
xG 0.97–0.30 (76%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Schenn2:25
xG 0.59–0.08 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).