Wed, Mar 20, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Arizona Coyotes 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 16 | 06 | 113 | 225 |
| DAL | 09 | 313 | 211 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:45ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 7:34DALLogan StankovenAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Jason Robertson · Poke, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 11:55DALJamie BennAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 12:24DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 4:12DALJason RobertsonAssists: Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 5:25DALCraig SmithAssists: Radek Faksa, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 8:50ARIJohn LeonardAssists: Jack McBain, Dylan Guenther · Snap, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:05ARINick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:55ARILiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:26ARISean Durzi: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:09DALChris Tanev: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestO'Brien – McBain – Leonard7:45
xG 0.42–0.02 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Schmaltz – Keller13:11
xG 0.65–0.61 (51%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Crouse – Guenther – Cooley10:03
xG 0.18–0.44 (29%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Carcone – Maccelli11:28
xG 0.19–1.03 (15%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Dermott14:09
xG 0.88–0.44 (67%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Välimäki – Kesselring17:00
xG 0.58–0.98 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Durzi – Moser15:56
xG 0.15–1.06 (13%)attempts 12–18goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:22
xG 0.66–0.16 (81%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:23
xG 1.03–0.65 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston11:35
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel10:36
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley14:45
xG 1.23–0.64 (66%)attempts 19–13goals 2–2
- Suter – Lundkvist12:55
xG 0.60–0.41 (60%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Tanev – Lindell17:05
xG 0.41–0.58 (42%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).