Thu, Mar 21, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
St. Louis Blues 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 27 | 19 | 211 | 527 |
| OTT | 012 | 113 | 114 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:54STLBrandon SaadAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Matthew Kessel · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 14:57STLColton ParaykoAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 4:34OTTMark KastelicAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 13:11STLJake NeighboursGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.36 xG3–1
- P3 1:58OTTDominik KubalikPPAssists: Shane Pinto, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 5:43STLJordan KyrouAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 18:32STLJake NeighboursENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:19OTTJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
- P2 8:39STLMarco Scandella: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:05STLZachary Bolduc: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:19STLJake Neighbours: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:13OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Hayes – Kapanen – Bolduc4:45
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Thomas – Neighbours11:13
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Walker – Toropchenko – Dean4:27
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Hayes – Kapanen – Toropchenko2:49
xG 0.15–0.36 (29%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPerunovich – Kessel10:55
xG 0.78–0.32 (71%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Scandella – Faulk13:43
xG 0.40–0.99 (29%)attempts 6–23goals 1–0
- Leddy – Parayko19:03
xG 0.52–1.31 (28%)attempts 9–24goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Kelly – Stützle10:23
xG 0.67–0.23 (74%)attempts 17–3goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Katchouk – Kastelic6:42
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Pinto10:38
xG 0.64–0.63 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle2:18
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Brannstrom13:55
xG 1.05–0.59 (64%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Chychrun12:17
xG 0.83–0.66 (56%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Sanderson – Zub13:54
xG 0.74–0.73 (50%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).