Thu, Mar 21, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Buffalo Sabres 3, Edmonton Oilers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 213 | 111 | 05 | 329 |
| EDM | 116 | 28 | 515 | 839 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 16:34BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Bowen Byram, Lukas Rousek · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 18:55EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 4:26EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:56BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Connor Clifton · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 19:12EDMZach HymanAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 4:38EDMDarnell NurseGWGAssists: Troy Stecher · Snap, 0.01 xG3–4
- P3 5:40EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 15:18EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.16 xG3–6
- P3 16:58EDMRyan McLeodAssists: Connor Brown · Snap, 0.09 xG3–7
- P3 19:51EDMConnor BrownAssists: Sam Carrick, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–8
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:26EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:14BUFConnor Clifton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:32EDMCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:02BUFJJ Peterka: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:56EDMCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Peterka11:04
xG 1.01–0.84 (55%)attempts 15–7goals 2–2
- Olofsson – Jost – Rousek5:56
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Skinner – Girgensons – Krebs5:07
xG 0.07–0.56 (11%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Greenway – Cozens – Benson11:24
xG 0.29–0.83 (26%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Dahlin – Byram11:49
xG 0.60–0.66 (48%)attempts 11–15goals 2–3
- Jokiharju – Dahlin2:08
xG 0.04–0.20 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Byram – Power6:03
xG 0.00–0.75 (0%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid7:21
xG 1.55–0.05 (97%)attempts 14–4goals 3–0
- Perry – Henrique – Nugent-Hopkins9:42
xG 0.86–0.21 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Foegele – McLeod6:51
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Foegele – McLeod2:16
xG 0.46–0.17 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:08
xG 2.55–0.56 (82%)attempts 30–13goals 3–1
- Ceci – Kulak13:26
xG 1.42–0.51 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 2–2
- Nurse – Stecher13:37
xG 0.48–0.50 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).