Thu, Mar 21, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 19 | 03 | 117 |
| VAN | 212 | 16 | 17 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:38VANNikita ZadorovAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 19:33VANNikita ZadorovGWGAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 18:14VANConor GarlandAssists: Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 19:07MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Cole Caufield · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 11:44VANNils AmanAssists: Tyler Myers, Vasily Podkolzin · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:46MTLNick Suzuki: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:40MTLBrendan Gallagher: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:42MTLKaiden Guhle: Interference2 min
- P2 2:36VANTyler Myers: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:18VANSam Lafferty: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:04MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:04VANConor Garland: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:04VANConor Garland: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Pearson – White – Pezzetta5:53
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Armia – Harvey-Pinard – Newhook10:46
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans8:58
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:22
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Harris9:40
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Harris – Guhle2:52
xG 0.09–0.02 (79%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Harris2:34
xG 0.03–0.02 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Podkolzin – Aman5:44
xG 0.89–0.03 (97%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Boeser – Suter7:36
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Garland – Pettersson – Hoglander7:53
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson2:26
xG 0.04–0.09 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Soucy14:47
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Zadorov – Juulsen10:29
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Hronek – Hughes16:38
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).