Thu, Mar 21, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 14 | 06 | 311 | 421 |
| SJS | 17 | 09 | 06 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53TBLNick PaulAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 7:21SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Jacob MacDonald · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 0:34TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 6:50TBLAnthony DuclairAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 14:02TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Duclair · Slap, 0.33 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:42SJSHenry Thrun: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:40TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:37SJSLuke Kunin: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:25SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:25TBLConor Sheary: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00SJSJan Rutta: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:11TBLEmil Lilleberg: Interference2 min
- P3 18:20TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sturm won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Duclair – Point9:36
xG 0.97–0.35 (73%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Duclair – Cirelli – Hagel2:19
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Paul – Sheary – Eyssimont7:13
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel9:32
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak3:05
xG 0.85–0.09 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- de Haan – Raddysh6:59
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Dumba – Lilleberg7:41
xG 0.24–0.07 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKunin – Zadina – Barabanov9:03
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Bailey – Sturm – Bordeleau10:33
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Granlund – Kostin – Zetterlund8:47
xG 0.20–0.64 (24%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Addison9:26
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Ferraro11:47
xG 0.38–0.76 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Rutta – Thrun11:01
xG 0.07–0.46 (14%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).