Fri, Mar 22, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 07 | 18 | 222 |
| DAL | 110 | 27 | 16 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45PITMichael BuntingAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Pierre-Olivier Joseph · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 7:16DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Thomas Harley, Jason Robertson · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 5:52DALJamie BennPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 7:09DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Logan Stankoven · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 4:37DALSam SteelAssists: Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 11:03PITRickard RakellAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.45 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:27DALWyatt Johnston: Holding2 min
- P2 5:30PITRickard Rakell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:37DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:18PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Bunting10:18
xG 1.16–0.22 (84%)attempts 16–7goals 2–1
- Acciari – Puljujarvi – Bemstrom7:34
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor11:44
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen9:23
xG 0.19–0.65 (22%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson18:41
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Letang – Joseph17:14
xG 0.85–0.77 (53%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- St. Ivany – Ludvig9:57
xG 0.60–0.65 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:56
xG 0.93–0.03 (97%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston11:32
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Smith – Faksa – Steel7:49
xG 0.16–0.52 (24%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:55
xG 0.29–1.05 (22%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Lindell15:40
xG 1.36–0.30 (82%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Suter – Lundkvist13:46
xG 0.23–0.64 (27%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Heiskanen – Harley18:44
xG 0.54–1.27 (30%)attempts 15–25goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).