Sat, Mar 23, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 5, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 18 | 27 | 11 | 527 |
| MIN | 05 | 312 | 116 | 01 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:07STLJake NeighboursAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 4:45MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Brock Faber, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:44MINMarco RossiAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 12:49STLJordan KyrouAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 15:11MINMarco RossiAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 3:50STLJordan KyrouAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 10:01STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brandon Saad, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 14:51MINBrock FaberAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
- OT 2:05STLBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:40MINDeclan Chisholm: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:01STLNick Leddy: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00STLJake Neighbours: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MINBrock Faber: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Kapanen – Toropchenko8:16
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko2:21
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Thomas – Neighbours15:57
xG 0.91–0.98 (48%)attempts 16–20goals 1–3
- Hayes – Kapanen – Bolduc4:10
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Perunovich9:33
xG 0.91–0.27 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Krug – Kessel7:54
xG 0.30–0.21 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Perunovich – Kessel2:02
xG 0.03–0.18 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Hartman – Boldy12:29
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Kaprizov2:12
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Khusnutdinov6:49
xG 0.10–0.31 (24%)attempts 6–3goals 0–2
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi13:33
xG 0.99–1.24 (44%)attempts 18–15goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Chisholm16:38
xG 0.55–0.46 (55%)attempts 19–8goals 1–3
- Middleton – Faber21:27
xG 0.86–0.88 (50%)attempts 23–21goals 2–1
- Merrill – Mermis14:08
xG 0.50–1.00 (33%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).