Sat, Mar 23, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 110 | 18 | 224 |
| VAN | 16 | 112 | 28 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48VANNils HoglanderAssists: Elias Pettersson, Conor Garland · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 8:16VANNils HoglanderAssists: Elias Pettersson, Conor Garland · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 18:31CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: A.J. Greer, Kevin Rooney · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 16:42VANJ.T. MillerPPGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 18:50VANElias LindholmENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–4
- P3 19:41CGYJoel HanleyAssists: Brayden Pachal, A.J. Greer · Slap, 0.01 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 9:21VANVasily Podkolzin: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:06VANJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:30CGYConnor Zary: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:34CGYOliver Kylington: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:49CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHunt – Greer – Rooney7:52
xG 0.70–0.13 (85%)attempts 11–2goals 2–0
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko10:26
xG 0.34–0.20 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane12:29
xG 0.47–0.60 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary13:09
xG 0.38–0.93 (29%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov19:08
xG 1.05–0.47 (69%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Hanley – Pachal10:50
xG 0.33–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Andersson – Kylington16:23
xG 0.69–1.30 (35%)attempts 17–29goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGarland – Pettersson – Hoglander11:36
xG 0.95–0.36 (73%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Blueger – Podkolzin – Aman5:14
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Suter6:44
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Lafferty – Mikheyev7:43
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes16:23
xG 0.99–0.48 (67%)attempts 22–12goals 2–0
- Myers – Soucy14:06
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Juulsen14:22
xG 0.29–0.67 (30%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).