Sat, Mar 23, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 07 | 210 | 00 | 325 |
| LAK | 18 | 18 | 16 | 11 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:03LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 19:54TBLBrayden PointPPUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–1
- P2 2:18LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–2
- P3 1:12LAKMikey AndersonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 15:25TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brayden Point, Anthony Duclair · Slap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 19:14TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 0:25LAKVladislav GavrikovGWGAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:01TBLNick Paul: Holding2 min
- P1 19:41LAKAnze Kopitar: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:07LAKBlake Lizotte: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:31TBLMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:47TBLDarren Raddysh: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 13:26LAKAlex Laferriere: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Duclair – Point11:34
xG 1.16–0.21 (85%)attempts 21–6goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Paul – Hagel2:53
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Eyssimont – Chaffee2:33
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Glendening – Motte – Jeannot6:14
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh11:22
xG 1.08–0.13 (89%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Hedman – Perbix3:39
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg11:13
xG 0.13–0.53 (20%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield9:57
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Arvidsson – Dubois – Laferriere8:55
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore9:46
xG 0.10–0.69 (13%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy16:04
xG 0.89–0.43 (67%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Englund – Spence8:14
xG 0.21–0.33 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson16:27
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).