Sun, Mar 24, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Dallas Stars 4, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 116 | 28 | 435 |
| ARI | 17 | 012 | 19 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:21DALJamie BennAssists: Wyatt Johnston · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 18:44ARIClayton KellerAssists: Michael Kesselring, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:19DALTyler SeguinAssists: Ryan Suter, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 7:26ARINick BjugstadAssists: Lawson Crouse, Logan Cooley · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 14:32DALMiro HeiskanenGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 18:30DALMatt DucheneENAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:14DALLogan Stankoven: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:44ARIJ.J. Moser: Holding2 min
- P1 14:15DALMason Marchment: Holding2 min
- P1 15:15ARIMichael Carcone: Holding2 min
- P2 13:23ARIJuuso Välimäki: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:46ARIMichael Kesselring: Holding2 min
- P3 5:20DALMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:51DALChris Tanev: Holding2 min
- P3 10:29DALThomas Harley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Cooley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Stankoven – Johnston8:37
xG 0.92–0.17 (85%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:57
xG 0.58–0.19 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment9:47
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel9:13
xG 0.17–0.45 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley14:29
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Tanev – Lindell12:20
xG 0.67–0.55 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Suter – Lundkvist9:52
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – Guenther – Cooley9:06
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- McBain – Leonard – Maccelli2:52
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Carcone – McBain2:21
xG 0.03–0.26 (10%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Schmaltz – Keller11:40
xG 0.38–0.76 (33%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Kesselring2:20
xG 0.08–0.02 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dermott – Crotty6:14
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Durzi – Moser13:06
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).