Sun, Mar 24, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Buffalo Sabres 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 08 | 310 | 429 |
| CGY | 011 | 110 | 012 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Lukas Rousek · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 10:35CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Daniil Miromanov · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 11:04BUFJJ PeterkaGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 19:15BUFTage ThompsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG3–1
- P3 19:58BUFConnor CliftonENAssists: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 10:04BUFPeyton Krebs: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:42CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:00BUFZach Benson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Cozens – Benson11:07
xG 0.90–0.26 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Skinner – Krebs – Rousek8:39
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Peterka14:03
xG 0.62–0.68 (48%)attempts 15–23goals 1–0
- Girgensons – Olofsson – Robinson9:38
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram12:27
xG 1.21–0.51 (70%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin4:38
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Byram – Power5:32
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Hunt – Greer – Rooney6:51
xG 0.04–0.04 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko11:23
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary12:04
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane14:31
xG 0.68–0.81 (46%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov17:29
xG 0.66–0.60 (53%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Weegar – Andersson2:06
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hanley – Pachal13:19
xG 0.23–0.26 (46%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).