Tue, Mar 26, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 210 | 210 | 25 | 625 |
| TOR | 125 | 210 | 010 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04TORTyler BertuzziAssists: Max Domi, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 4:25NJDLuke HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 17:56NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 3:14TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Conor Timmins, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 4:51TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 5:35NJDTimo MeierAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 13:05NJDMax WillmanGWGAssists: Curtis Lazar, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 16:47NJDJack HughesAssists: Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–3
- P3 18:51NJDJack HughesENAssists: Curtis Lazar, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.78 xG6–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:21NJDKevin Bahl: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:09TORIlya Lyubushkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:45NJDJohn Marino: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:18TORBobby McMann: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Bratt – Hischier11:59
xG 0.76–0.42 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 3–0
- Palat – Nosek – Mercer11:07
xG 0.64–0.67 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Haula – Lazar – Hughes2:51
xG 0.24–0.26 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Tierney – Lazar – Willman3:22
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Bahl13:39
xG 0.68–0.60 (53%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Smith – Marino2:50
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Bahl – Nemec3:42
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Domi – Matthews13:39
xG 1.23–0.70 (64%)attempts 19–8goals 2–2
- Holmberg – Robertson – Knies9:34
xG 0.74–0.46 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann12:01
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Gregor – Kampf – Dewar8:03
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Liljegren14:32
xG 1.45–0.55 (72%)attempts 26–11goals 0–2
- Brodie – Lyubushkin15:20
xG 1.15–0.79 (59%)attempts 23–12goals 2–1
- Brodie – McCabe2:07
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).