Tue, Mar 26, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Arizona Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 117 | 14 | 06 | 227 |
| ARI | 011 | 212 | 412 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:45CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 14:55ARIMatias MaccelliPPAssists: Sean Durzi, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 16:33ARIJosh DoanUnassisted · Bat, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 19:21CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Boone Jenner, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 11:32ARIJosh DoanGWGAssists: Matias Maccelli, Michael Kesselring · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 14:49ARINick BjugstadAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 16:02ARINick SchmaltzSHAssists: Karel Vejmelka · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 19:49ARIDylan GuentherSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:57CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:57ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:39ARISean Durzi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:26CBJAlexandre Texier: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:58CBJErik Gudbranson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:12ARIJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 17:12CBJErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:17ARIMichael Kesselring: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:57ARIMichael Kesselring: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:39ARIMichael Carcone: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:39ARIMichael Carcone: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:39CBJJames Malatesta: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaunce – Olivier – Voronkov8:45
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Texier13:00
xG 0.53–0.61 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Meyer – Angle – Malatesta8:17
xG 0.03–0.81 (4%)attempts 2–15goals 0–1
- Marchenko – Pyyhtia – Sillinger11:07
xG 0.20–0.99 (17%)attempts 5–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Severson2:34
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Provorov – Bean10:02
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Provorov – Christiansen3:46
xG 0.00–0.11 (3%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMcBain – Maccelli – Doan10:28
xG 1.47–0.07 (95%)attempts 21–3goals 2–0
- Bjugstad – Schmaltz – Keller11:26
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Crouse – Guenther – Cooley9:55
xG 0.72–0.73 (50%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – Carcone7:05
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Dermott11:44
xG 1.47–0.56 (72%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Välimäki – Moser3:10
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Durzi – Moser13:39
xG 0.66–0.61 (52%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).