Wed, Mar 27, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 07 | 07 | 124 |
| TBL | 112 | 19 | 110 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:06TBLMitchell ChaffeeAssists: Nick Paul, Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 17:11BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 6:50TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Emil Lilleberg, Nick Perbix · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:33TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrap-around, 0.78 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:36BOSJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P1 17:33BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:33TBLTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:29TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:20TBLAnthony Duclair: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- van Riemsdyk – Brazeau – Beecher2:00
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brazeau – Boqvist – Beecher3:45
xG 0.00–0.08 (3%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk10:34
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Frederic – Geekie3:30
xG 0.04–0.31 (11%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Peeke14:32
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- Lindholm – McAvoy2:12
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:14
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Cirelli – Hagel13:58
xG 0.85–0.21 (80%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Duclair – Point12:37
xG 0.84–0.55 (61%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Paul – Eyssimont – Chaffee7:21
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Glendening – Motte – Jeannot8:20
xG 0.12–0.03 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh18:07
xG 1.16–0.33 (78%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg14:54
xG 0.59–0.03 (95%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Hedman – Cernak3:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).