Fri, Mar 29, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 012 | 07 | 230 |
| BUF | 08 | 211 | 317 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:00NJDMax WillmanAssists: Luke Hughes, Chris Tierney · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 10:31NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nico Hischier, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 0:28BUFTage ThompsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 17:29BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 15:26BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 19:22BUFJJ PeterkaENAssists: Dylan Cozens, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–4
- P3 19:54BUFTage ThompsonENAssists: Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:04BUFBowen Byram: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:38BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:41BUFDylan Cozens: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hughes – Holtz14:53
xG 0.87–0.20 (81%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Palat – Nosek – Mercer10:03
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier10:38
xG 0.72–0.64 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Tierney – Lazar – Willman5:31
xG 0.00–0.35 (1%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeSimone – Hughes13:28
xG 1.13–0.94 (55%)attempts 31–19goals 1–1
- Marino – Bahl15:39
xG 1.01–0.85 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Smith – Nemec16:43
xG 0.24–0.62 (28%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Olofsson – Jost6:19
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Skinner – Greenway – Krebs4:33
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Greenway – Cozens – Benson4:50
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Skinner – Krebs – Quinn3:26
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power20:53
xG 0.90–0.30 (75%)attempts 23–16goals 2–2
- Clifton – Bryson9:15
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Clifton – Dahlin2:03
xG 0.01–0.10 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).