Sat, Mar 30, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 1, Edmonton Oilers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 011 | 13 | 122 |
| EDM | 313 | 212 | 112 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47EDMAdam HenriqueAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:15EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 16:16EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Sam Carrick, Vincent Desharnais · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 9:28EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 15:57EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Vincent Desharnais · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–5
- P3 7:06EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.09 xG0–6
- P3 15:42ANAAlex KillornPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Frank Vatrano · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:45ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:43EDMCorey Perry: Holding2 min
- P2 8:20ANABrett Leason: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:37ANAWilliam Lagesson: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:09EDMAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Killorn – Terry – Carlsson11:33
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Zegras11:10
xG 0.88–0.98 (47%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Johnston – Groulx8:34
xG 0.18–0.41 (31%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Lundeström – Leason – McTavish8:04
xG 0.02–0.46 (4%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Zellweger14:22
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Lagesson – Vaakanainen12:30
xG 0.23–1.18 (16%)attempts 13–18goals 0–2
- Lindstrom – Mintyukov17:29
xG 0.67–1.73 (28%)attempts 15–29goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Draisaitl – Foegele9:44
xG 0.70–0.04 (95%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Perry – Kane – McLeod9:56
xG 0.97–0.51 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid9:33
xG 1.12–0.66 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Carrick – Janmark – Ryan9:58
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard7:04
xG 1.04–0.06 (94%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Stecher7:44
xG 1.22–0.27 (82%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Nurse4:18
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).