Sat, Mar 30, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Nashville Predators 4, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 312 | 114 | 09 | 435 |
| COL | 216 | 312 | 214 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41NSHCole SmithAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Michael McCarron · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 5:25COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 13:02NSHMark JankowskiAssists: Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P1 13:43NSHDante FabbroAssists: Jason Zucker, Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P1 16:11COLCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Poke, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 0:57NSHGustav NyquistAssists: Spencer Stastney, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 5:43COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P2 18:25COLCale MakarPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- P2 19:31COLYakov TreninGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 3:38COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Josh Manson, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–6
- P3 16:10COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.45 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:16COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:08COLMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:34NSHRyan O'Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:54NSHKiefer Sherwood: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:57COLAlexandar Georgiev: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:11NSHRyan McDonagh: Match penalty5 min · PPG
- P2 14:34COLMiles Wood: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:44NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:54NSHLuke Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:06COLArtturi Lehkonen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Trenin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Sissons – Glass4:34
xG 0.58–0.11 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg8:19
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista6:11
xG 0.38–0.66 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith5:55
xG 0.00–0.51 (0%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Stastney5:07
xG 0.71–0.07 (91%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Stastney4:28
xG 0.45–0.21 (69%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Schenn – Stastney5:11
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 2–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParise – Wood – Colton5:53
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen10:10
xG 0.62–0.36 (64%)attempts 19–9goals 2–1
- Cogliano – Trenin – Duhaime3:01
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – Duhaime – Mittelstadt6:22
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Toews2:42
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Manson3:08
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Makar2:01
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).