Sun, Mar 31, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 05 | 012 | 25 | 222 |
| VAN | 19 | 18 | 113 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:26VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 9:34VANDakota JoshuaPPAssists: Pius Suter, Filip Hronek · Between legs, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 3:37ANAOlen ZellwegerAssists: Isac Lundeström, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 4:48ANAMason McTavishAssists: Gustav Lindstrom, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 17:47VANDakota JoshuaGWGAssists: Conor Garland, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:31ANABen Meyers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 12:15VANTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P1 15:55ANAUrho Vaakanainen: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:06ANALeo Carlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:00VANVasily Podkolzin: Holding2 min
- P2 7:44ANAJakob Silfverberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:07VANCarson Soucy: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:09VANNoah Juulsen: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00ANAMason McTavish: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Killorn – Terry – Carlsson11:47
xG 0.65–0.81 (45%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Groulx – Leason – Meyers2:33
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Zegras – McTavish10:57
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Silfverberg – Vatrano – Lundeström8:50
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Lindstrom – LaCombe14:09
xG 0.45–0.75 (38%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Lagesson – Vaakanainen9:56
xG 0.34–0.75 (31%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Fowler – Zellweger13:14
xG 0.36–0.86 (30%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Joshua – Garland9:48
xG 1.34–0.57 (70%)attempts 21–10goals 1–1
- Blueger – Podkolzin – Bains6:41
xG 0.46–0.02 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Boeser – Pettersson – Hoglander10:18
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Suter – Mikheyev7:20
xG 0.09–0.23 (29%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Soucy14:07
xG 1.16–0.52 (69%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Hronek – Hughes12:28
xG 0.88–0.43 (67%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Soucy – Hughes2:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).