Mon, Apr 1, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 26 | 117 | 03 | 11 | 427 |
| PHI | 111 | 13 | 120 | 00 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57PHINoah CatesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 12:03NYIMatt MartinAssists: Kyle MacLean · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 12:21NYIBo HorvatAssists: Mathew Barzal, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 0:43PHITravis SanheimUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 17:54NYIAnders LeeAssists: Alexander Romanov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:50PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 1:24NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:35PHIEgor Zamula: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:03PHICam York: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:28NYIAnders Lee: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:32NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Fasching4:48
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Nelson – Engvall – Barzal2:04
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean7:52
xG 0.42–0.28 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Fasching – Barzal3:04
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov14:44
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Reilly8:49
xG 0.41–0.09 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Pelech – Pulock15:05
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Konecny – Farabee2:26
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Cates8:45
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Foerster3:07
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Atkinson – Tippett – Frost6:12
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale9:57
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Zamula – Drysdale3:24
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zamula7:10
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).