Thu, Apr 4, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 6, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 213 | 311 | 17 | 631 |
| OTT | 014 | 06 | 010 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02FLANick CousinsGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 1:37FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Evan Rodrigues · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 2:35FLAAnton LundellAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Nick Cousins · Snap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 4:19FLASam BennettAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Josh Mahura · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 17:56FLASam ReinhartAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–0
- P3 3:54FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart · Tip-in, 0.20 xG6–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:46FLASteven Lorentz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:32FLARyan Lomberg: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:32OTTParker Kelly: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:32FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:21FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:52FLANick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00OTTRidly Greig: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:02FLANick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:18OTTShane Pinto: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:30FLAEvan Rodrigues: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestRodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell9:00
xG 0.78–0.06 (93%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Barkov – Reinhart9:33
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Cousins – Bennett – Tkachuk8:51
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
- Stenlund – Lorentz – Lomberg9:25
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Forsling11:56
xG 0.91–0.20 (82%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Montour – Mikkola12:58
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Mahura10:54
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Kelly – Stützle3:03
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Joseph – Katchouk – Kastelic2:40
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Kastelic – Kelly4:38
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Joseph – Kastelic – Greig2:25
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKleven – Zub2:37
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub14:14
xG 0.24–0.58 (29%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Brannstrom – Kleven8:56
xG 0.20–0.62 (24%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).