Fri, Apr 5, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Arizona Coyotes 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 03 | 416 | 05 | 424 |
| ARI | 014 | 18 | 610 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:17ARIAlexander KerfootAssists: Michael Kesselring · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 7:39VGKJack EichelAssists: Brayden McNabb, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 11:08VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Brendan Brisson, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 14:37VGKAnthony ManthaAssists: William Karlsson, Pavel Dorofeyev · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 18:08VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Paul Cotter, Zach Whitecloud · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 8:19ARIJosh DoanAssists: Jack McBain, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 9:16ARINick BjugstadAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 9:26ARIMichael CarconeAssists: Liam O'Brien · Slap, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 14:47ARIMichael CarconeGWGAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 15:48ARIJoshua BrownAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 17:25ARILogan CooleyENAssists: Lawson Crouse, Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.47 xG4–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:41ARISean Durzi: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:53VGKJonathan Marchessault: Interference2 min
- P2 0:51ARIJoshua Brown: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:31ARIAlexander Kerfoot: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:44ARIJuuso Välimäki: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:26VGKKeegan Kolesar: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStephenson – Amadio – Cotter10:42
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Kolesar – Howden – Brisson10:15
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Karlsson – Mantha – Dorofeyev8:07
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 4–13goals 1–2
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel12:43
xG 0.31–0.78 (29%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Whitecloud13:19
xG 0.79–0.47 (62%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
- Hanifin – Hague17:11
xG 0.58–0.70 (45%)attempts 15–26goals 1–2
- McNabb – Theodore15:26
xG 0.44–0.92 (32%)attempts 9–17goals 1–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – Guenther – Cooley10:03
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – Carcone8:28
xG 0.32–0.23 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- McBain – Maccelli – Doan9:25
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Schmaltz – Keller12:27
xG 0.62–0.90 (41%)attempts 15–13goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Dermott14:23
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 19–10goals 2–0
- Välimäki – Kesselring14:32
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Durzi – Kesselring2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).