Sat, Apr 6, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 115 | 114 | 239 |
| CBJ | 214 | 213 | 26 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:08CBJErik GudbransonAssists: Mikael Pyyhtia, Justin Danforth · Snap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 18:54CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Zach Werenski, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 8:23CBJDamon SeversonGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Alex Nylander · Snap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 14:32PHIOlle LycksellAssists: Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 15:20CBJNick BlankenburgAssists: David Jiricek, Alexandre Texier · Snap, 0.01 xG1–4
- P3 9:29CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Dmitri Voronkov · Snap, 0.01 xG1–5
- P3 11:26CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Carson Meyer, James Malatesta · Snap, 0.19 xG1–6
- P3 15:08PHIAdam GinningAssists: Noah Cates, Ronnie Attard · Snap, 0.01 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:58CBJNick Blankenburg: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 3:21PHIScott Laughton: Elbowing2 min
- P3 7:17PHISamuel Ersson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:25PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Voronkov won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Frost – Foerster2:29
xG 0.41–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Lycksell9:48
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Laughton – Konecny – Farabee10:34
xG 0.81–0.62 (57%)attempts 17–14goals 0–2
- Atkinson – Tippett – Cates5:36
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale17:26
xG 0.88–0.69 (56%)attempts 30–21goals 0–1
- Sanheim – York16:44
xG 0.68–0.85 (44%)attempts 14–22goals 1–1
- Ginning – Attard12:15
xG 0.85–1.18 (42%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaunce – Meyer – Malatesta9:12
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Nylander – Voronkov12:16
xG 0.64–0.74 (47%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Texier – Marchenko – Sillinger9:11
xG 0.24–0.63 (27%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Olivier – Danforth – Pyyhtia11:17
xG 0.24–0.81 (23%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Blankenburg4:13
xG 0.91–0.09 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Provorov14:43
xG 0.74–0.45 (62%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Jiricek – Blankenburg8:30
xG 0.54–0.34 (62%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).