Sat, Apr 6, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 04 | 418 | 08 | 430 |
| MTL | 09 | 28 | 09 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:21TORMax DomiAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 2:38TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 7:20TORMatthew KniesGWGAssists: William Nylander, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 7:54TORBobby McMannAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.20 xG4–0
- P2 9:05MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 18:32MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.23 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 7:25MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:25TORRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 8:53TORTyler Bertuzzi: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:01MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:01TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:01MTLJoel Armia: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Domi – Matthews12:27
xG 1.28–0.85 (60%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Tavares – Marner – McMann11:44
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Reaves – Kampf – Dewar6:08
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Nylander – Holmberg – Knies11:40
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:12
xG 1.08–0.46 (70%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin14:45
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- McCabe – Benoit14:13
xG 0.78–0.97 (45%)attempts 15–19goals 2–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:35
xG 1.24–0.80 (61%)attempts 22–13goals 1–2
- White – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard6:32
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Pearson – Anderson – Evans12:28
xG 0.40–0.48 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Armia – Newhook10:58
xG 0.06–0.72 (7%)attempts 5–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Barron3:43
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Savard – Matheson13:06
xG 0.87–0.86 (50%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1
- Harris – Struble2:09
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).