Sun, Apr 7, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 05 | 09 | 09 | 023 |
| CAR | 213 | 011 | 111 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:17CARAndrei SvechnikovGWGAssists: Jordan Martinook, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:45CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 13:53CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:28CBJAlexandre Texier: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:23CBJIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:36CBJSean Kuraly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:45CBJDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:12CARSeth Jarvis: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Voronkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaunce – Danforth – Malatesta5:52
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Olivier – Malatesta3:09
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Danforth – Pyyhtia4:42
xG 0.05–0.17 (23%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Pyyhtia5:34
xG 0.02–0.64 (2%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jiricek – Blankenburg9:58
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Provorov16:50
xG 0.36–0.96 (27%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Severson – Werenski19:19
xG 0.63–1.45 (30%)attempts 16–24goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Aho – Jarvis11:53
xG 1.33–0.22 (86%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Fast – Noesen – Drury10:27
xG 0.79–0.10 (89%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Svechnikov10:26
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Teravainen – Necas8:50
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin16:12
xG 1.56–0.19 (89%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield15:37
xG 1.07–0.44 (71%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:35
xG 0.84–0.65 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).