Sun, Apr 7, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Arizona Coyotes 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 210 | 07 | 311 | 528 |
| SJS | 17 | 112 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17ARILawson CrousePPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Logan Cooley · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 4:28SJSHenry ThrunPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Fabian Zetterlund · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 11:07ARILiam O'BrienUnassisted · Poke, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 11:40SJSLuke KuninAssists: Henry Thrun, Collin Graf · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
- P3 4:56ARIDylan GuentherGWGAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 14:13ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Juuso Välimäki · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 16:54ARINick SchmaltzENAssists: Clayton Keller, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.47 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:20SJSHenry Thrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 3:45ARITravis Dermott: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 6:20ARILawson Crouse: Elbowing2 min
- P1 14:39SJSJack Studnicka: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:06ARIClayton Keller: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:17ARIDylan Guenther: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:46ARIJoshua Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:49SJSThomas Bordeleau: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:00ARIJ.J. Moser: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:13SJSThomas Bordeleau: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:13ARIMatias Maccelli: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:51SJSCalen Addison: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – O'Brien – Carcone7:25
xG 0.42–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- McBain – Maccelli – Doan8:57
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Schmaltz – Keller9:36
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Crouse – Guenther – Cooley6:49
xG 0.00–0.53 (0%)attempts 1–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Kesselring10:14
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Durzi – Moser7:43
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Välimäki4:31
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Zetterlund – Eklund9:04
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Bailey – Kunin – Graf5:01
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Studnicka – Zadina – Bordeleau5:35
xG 0.02–0.35 (6%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Rutta12:11
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Burroughs – Thrun8:34
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Addison4:20
xG 0.04–0.26 (14%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).