Sun, Apr 7, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Ottawa Senators 3, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 321 |
| WSH | 14 | 18 | 010 | 00 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43WSHMax PaciorettyAssists: Hendrix Lapierre · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 5:40OTTMark KastelicAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Parker Kelly · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 17:10WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 12:49OTTRidly GreigAssists: Shane Pinto, Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 0:41OTTJake SandersonGWGAssists: Ridly Greig, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:00WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00OTTMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00OTTMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:12OTTMathieu Joseph: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:07WSHMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:39OTTRidly Greig: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:44WSHConnor McMichael: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Pinto14:20
xG 0.90–0.26 (78%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Imama – MacEwen – Smejkal6:29
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Joseph – Greig11:22
xG 0.58–0.55 (52%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Kastelic – Kelly7:35
xG 0.18–0.44 (29%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub14:45
xG 0.94–0.37 (72%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Chabot – Brannstrom15:22
xG 0.78–0.68 (53%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker15:50
xG 0.67–0.88 (43%)attempts 20–21goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Milano – Lapierre10:25
xG 0.72–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Dowd – Malenstyn – Protas3:40
xG 0.36–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Dowd – Wilson – Protas2:29
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome7:12
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Fehérváry4:32
xG 0.37–0.15 (72%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Carlson – Alexeyev4:22
xG 0.36–0.17 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Alexeyev5:38
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).