Sun, Apr 7, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Nashville Predators 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 112 | 013 | 18 | 02 | 1 | 335 |
| NJD | 18 | 09 | 15 | 03 | 0 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49NJDJack HughesAssists: Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 8:39NSHRoman JosiAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 2:11NJDChris TierneyAssists: Tomas Nosek · Snap, 0.43 xG1–2
- P3 12:45NSHLuke EvangelistaPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Timo Meier stopped
- 2. NSH Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 3. NJD Jesper Bratt stopped
- 4. NSH Ryan O'Reilly scored
- 5. NJD Jack Hughes stopped
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:37NSHColton Sissons: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:51NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:57NSHJeremy Lauzon: Holding2 min
- P3 10:32NJDKevin Bahl: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:32NJDSimon Nemec: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- OT 4:30NJDLuke Hughes: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Novak – Evangelista7:23
xG 0.84–0.14 (85%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Zucker – Jankowski – Sissons2:26
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith10:36
xG 0.34–0.33 (50%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Zucker – Sissons – Beauvillier6:04
xG 0.11–0.42 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Carrier14:59
xG 0.74–0.34 (69%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi16:31
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Stastney9:11
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Holtz – Halonen4:11
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bratt – Hischier – Hughes2:04
xG 0.05–0.02 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Tierney – Bowers – Halonen2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer11:27
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Bahl15:28
xG 0.72–0.27 (73%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Siegenthaler – Nemec14:36
xG 0.63–1.04 (38%)attempts 13–25goals 0–0
- DeSimone – Hughes16:05
xG 0.29–0.74 (28%)attempts 11–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).