Sun, Apr 7, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 6, Anaheim Ducks 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 210 | 211 | 17 | 03 | 1 | 631 |
| ANA | 115 | 112 | 37 | 04 | 0 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:11STLZachary BolducAssists: Robert Thomas, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 2:37ANANikita NesterenkoAssists: Gustav Lindstrom, Isac Lundeström · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 12:36STLMatthew KesselAssists: Robert Thomas, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 3:41ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Alex Killorn, Trevor Zegras · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 13:36STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Torey Krug, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 15:50STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Scott Perunovich · Snap, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 1:01ANALeo CarlssonPPAssists: Isac Lundeström, Troy Terry · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 2:40STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.36 xG5–3
- P3 8:04ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Trevor Zegras, Ryan Strome · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 16:09ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Alex Killorn, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.10 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. ANA Trevor Zegras stopped
- 2. STL Jordan Kyrou scored
- 3. ANA Leo Carlsson stopped
- 4. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
- 5. ANA Troy Terry stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:36STLMatthew Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:57ANARyan Strome: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:07ANARoss Johnston: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:07ANARoss Johnston: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:07STLJordan Binnington: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:01STLTyler Tucker: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 1:51ANAFrank Vatrano: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Saad – Buchnevich – Kyrou13:44
xG 0.61–0.65 (48%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
- Walker – Blais – Alexandrov6:37
xG 0.00–0.35 (1%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Schenn – Thomas – Bolduc12:16
xG 0.25–0.64 (28%)attempts 6–11goals 2–1
- Hayes – Toropchenko – Dean8:44
xG 0.21–0.87 (19%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Perunovich17:05
xG 0.71–0.57 (56%)attempts 15–20goals 2–1
- Leddy – Tucker12:09
xG 0.39–0.47 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko3:30
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Zegras11:25
xG 1.12–0.46 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Killorn – Terry – Carlsson10:58
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – Nesterenko11:29
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 1–0
- Johnston – Leason – Meyers8:33
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVaakanainen – Lindstrom13:37
xG 1.17–0.18 (86%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Fowler – Zellweger18:03
xG 1.27–0.64 (67%)attempts 27–13goals 2–2
- Gudas – LaCombe17:13
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).