Mon, Apr 8, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 010 | 113 | 00 | 233 |
| TOR | 05 | 19 | 18 | 11 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:06PITRickard RakellAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:36TORMatthew KniesAssists: TJ Brodie, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 1:22TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: John Tavares · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 13:38PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- OT 1:30TORJake McCabeGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:47TORSimon Benoit: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:18TORIlya Lyubushkin: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:17TORWilliam Nylander: Holding2 min
- P2 9:56PITRickard Rakell: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:15TORMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:38TORJake McCabe: Interference2 min
- P3 1:19PITErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Bunting13:01
xG 1.53–0.21 (88%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor13:42
xG 1.08–0.37 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Carter – Eller – Smith3:22
xG 0.01–0.12 (4%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen7:47
xG 0.03–0.44 (7%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson15:31
xG 1.25–0.24 (84%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Letang – Joseph16:21
xG 1.21–0.71 (63%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
- Shea – St. Ivany10:06
xG 0.22–0.59 (27%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Domi – Matthews14:36
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Nylander – Holmberg – Knies8:23
xG 0.49–0.48 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Reaves – Kampf – Dewar5:44
xG 0.11–0.14 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Tavares – Marner – McMann10:12
xG 0.44–0.93 (32%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie8:44
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly3:46
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin11:19
xG 0.28–0.25 (52%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).