Mon, Apr 8, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 26 | 19 | 08 | 323 |
| VAN | 210 | 211 | 09 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51VGKJack EichelPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Logan Thompson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 8:06VGKJack EichelAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 11:50VANConor GarlandPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P1 14:26VANQuinn HughesPPAssists: Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 9:33VGKNoah HanifinPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 13:10VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 18:31VANConor GarlandGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Dakota Joshua · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:19VANBrock Boeser: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:39VGKBrett Howden: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:42VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P2 1:14VANFilip Hronek: Interference2 min
- P2 9:27VANCarson Soucy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:45VGKBrett Howden: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:46VANElias Pettersson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKolesar – Howden – Cotter6:38
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Mantha – Dorofeyev11:44
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel12:02
xG 0.68–0.65 (51%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Hertl – Stephenson – Amadio9:56
xG 0.09–0.74 (11%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Whitecloud11:18
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Martinez – Theodore2:53
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Hague15:25
xG 0.67–0.68 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – Pettersson – Hoglander11:29
xG 0.83–0.15 (85%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Miller – Joshua – Garland10:10
xG 1.02–0.39 (72%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Podkolzin – Aman5:05
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Blueger – Suter – Mikheyev7:21
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Soucy12:34
xG 1.16–0.26 (82%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Hronek – Hughes16:03
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Cole – Zadorov13:11
xG 0.04–0.36 (11%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).