Tue, Apr 9, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 04 | 215 | 27 | 426 |
| BOS | 04 | 16 | 013 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:55CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin · Cradle, 0.44 xG1–0
- P2 13:05CARTeuvo TeravainenGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 16:56BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Jakub Lauko · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 10:14CARJake GuentzelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 13:22CARSeth JarvisSHAssists: Brady Skjei, Jordan Staal · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:51BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:51CARJake Guentzel: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:35BOSMorgan Geekie: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:22BOSBrad Marchand: Kneeing2 min
- P2 14:22CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:12CARJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:23CARJesper Fast: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Frederic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Svechnikov9:44
xG 1.14–0.02 (98%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Guentzel – Aho – Jarvis11:46
xG 1.04–0.19 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Fast – Noesen – Drury8:11
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Teravainen – Necas8:06
xG 0.05–0.37 (13%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield14:41
xG 1.46–0.01 (100%)attempts 15–2goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin14:11
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:36
xG 0.44–0.50 (47%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- DeBrusk – Frederic – Boqvist5:57
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Geekie9:51
xG 0.02–0.45 (5%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Heinen – Zacha9:21
xG 0.12–0.57 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Lauko – Beecher6:14
xG 0.01–1.09 (1%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy5:35
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Carlo4:59
xG 0.02–0.13 (14%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo8:01
xG 0.43–0.73 (37%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).