Thu, Apr 11, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 14 | 19 | 224 |
| BUF | 15 | 16 | 26 | 417 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:00BUFZach BensonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Peyton Krebs · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 12:37BUFAlex TuchAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 14:36WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Max Pacioretty, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 9:46BUFJack QuinnGWGAssists: Connor Clifton, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 17:43BUFDylan CozensENAssists: Jordan Greenway, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–4
- P3 19:00WSHTom WilsonAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P3 0:16WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00WSHMax Pacioretty: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00BUFTage Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00BUFJordan Greenway: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Strome – Protas11:55
xG 0.85–0.04 (96%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Oshie – Pacioretty – McMichael5:15
xG 0.54–0.09 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Milano – Lapierre3:47
xG 0.16–0.00 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – McMichael6:32
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry16:37
xG 1.27–0.57 (69%)attempts 24–18goals 0–1
- Jensen – Alexeyev17:32
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Carlson – van Riemsdyk2:55
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Krebs – Benson8:29
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Greenway – Cozens – Quinn8:17
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Skinner – Greenway – Krebs2:14
xG 0.01–0.11 (7%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Jost – Rousek9:18
xG 0.12–0.55 (19%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Clague – Jokiharju14:42
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Clifton – Bryson16:18
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power18:00
xG 0.49–1.47 (25%)attempts 13–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).