Fri, Apr 12, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 5, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 213 | 214 | 113 | 540 |
| CHI | 06 | 112 | 08 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:53NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Luke Evangelista, Tommy Novak · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 19:03NSHKiefer SherwoodGWGAssists: Luke Schenn, Spencer Stastney · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 5:22NSHFilip ForsbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–0
- P2 9:39NSHJason ZuckerPPAssists: Roman Josi, Kevin Lankinen · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–0
- P2 16:58CHIPhilipp KurashevPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 1:37NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Luke Evangelista · Snap, 0.28 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:25CHIAndreas Athanasiou: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:11NSHDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:33NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:29CHIConnor Bedard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:24NSHTommy Novak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:53NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:26CHIAlex Vlasic: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
- P3 19:03CHINick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:03NSHJeremy Lauzon: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Beauvillier – Glass7:27
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista7:25
xG 0.21–0.00 (99%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Zucker – Jankowski – Sissons9:05
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith9:29
xG 0.11–0.41 (22%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Stastney10:25
xG 1.03–0.15 (87%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Carrier13:54
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Fabbro – Stastney2:46
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Anderson – Slaggert4:48
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Donato – Entwistle3:20
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Anderson – Kurashev4:36
xG 0.26–0.22 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Athanasiou – Reichel3:41
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Del Mastro16:41
xG 0.88–0.70 (56%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Megna – Korchinski11:34
xG 0.54–1.01 (35%)attempts 11–18goals 0–2
- Jones – Vlasic16:05
xG 0.06–0.99 (5%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).