Sat, Apr 13, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 011 | 29 | 012 | 04 | 0 | 236 |
| NYR | 013 | 110 | 120 | 00 | 2 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:33NYRBraden SchneiderSHAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 11:42NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Hudson Fasching · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 19:32NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Hudson Fasching, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 15:43NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYR Artemi Panarin scored
- 2. NYI Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 3. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 4. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 5. NYR Vincent Trocheck scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:11NYIMike Reilly: Holding2 min
- P1 16:47NYRBarclay Goodrow: Holding2 min
- P1 19:31NYRKaapo Kakko: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 3:19NYRRyan Lindgren: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:45NYRRyan Lindgren: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:04NYRArtemi Panarin: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Engvall9:41
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Horvat – Barzal11:22
xG 0.83–0.75 (53%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Fasching10:57
xG 1.01–0.98 (51%)attempts 18–24goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean5:01
xG 0.02–0.03 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Romanov12:19
xG 1.07–0.38 (74%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Romanov4:08
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Reilly – Pulock2:27
xG 0.14–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Roslovic9:19
xG 0.92–0.08 (92%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Kakko – Cuylle10:19
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Rempe4:19
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière10:31
xG 0.45–0.61 (43%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Schneider15:55
xG 1.34–0.58 (70%)attempts 26–14goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren13:56
xG 1.37–1.35 (50%)attempts 25–20goals 1–1
- Trouba – Gustafsson12:52
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).