Sat, Apr 13, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 4, Ottawa Senators 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 27 | 17 | 02 | 0 | 425 |
| OTT | 19 | 112 | 220 | 03 | 1 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:11MTLMike MathesonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 13:08OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 1:37MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Jayden Struble, David Savard · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 8:36OTTShane PintoPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.42 xG2–2
- P2 13:05MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 0:47OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Jake Sanderson · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 15:49MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Brendan Gallagher, David Savard · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 18:55OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Drake Batherson, Jake Sanderson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. OTT Brady Tkachuk stopped
- 2. MTL Jesse Ylonen stopped
- 3. OTT Drake Batherson scored
- 4. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
- 5. OTT Claude Giroux stopped
- 6. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:15MTLJoel Armia: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:38OTTJiri Smejkal: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:33MTLNick Suzuki: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:08MTLBrendan Gallagher: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 7:02MTLDavid Savard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:24OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 16:49OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:05MTLJosh Anderson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:45MTLJoel Armia: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:19
xG 0.60–0.17 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Anderson – Evans – Harvey-Pinard6:42
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Pezzetta – Ylonen5:00
xG 0.00–0.28 (1%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Armia – Newhook10:17
xG 0.28–0.91 (24%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris12:25
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Matheson – Barron13:02
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Struble – Barron2:28
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Joseph – Greig9:38
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Kelly – Smejkal5:35
xG 0.35–0.13 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Pinto12:27
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Imama – MacEwen – Smejkal3:30
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Brannstrom11:19
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker10:08
xG 0.61–0.45 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Chabot – Chychrun4:42
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).