Sun, Apr 14, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 5, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 316 | 211 | 08 | 535 |
| CGY | 210 | 27 | 214 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36ARIAlexander KerfootAssists: Michael Kesselring, Connor Ingram · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 3:55ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: Joshua Brown, Vladislav Kolyachonok · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 7:22CGYAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Nazem Kadri, Martin Pospisil · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 9:42CGYMatt CoronatoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 17:54ARIDylan GuentherPPAssists: Sean Durzi, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 9:07CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Dryden Hunt · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P2 15:14ARIDylan GuentherAssists: Jan Jenik, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P2 16:17ARIJosh DoanAssists: Jack McBain · Snap, 0.10 xG5–3
- P2 16:50CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–4
- P3 1:14CGYNazem KadriAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington · Snap, 0.05 xG5–5
- P3 5:43CGYNazem KadriPPGWGAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Andrei Kuzmenko · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:27ARIJan Jenik: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:27CGYDryden Hunt: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:06ARIMichael Kesselring: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:39CGYNikita Okhotiuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:34ARIDylan Guenther: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:49ARIJ.J. Moser: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:04CGYOliver Kylington: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:15CGYMartin Pospisil: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Kerfoot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller13:16
xG 0.86–0.18 (82%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Carcone – Jenik6:43
xG 0.50–0.04 (93%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Crouse – Guenther – Cooley8:39
xG 0.44–0.41 (51%)attempts 17–6goals 0–2
- McBain – Maccelli – Doan7:36
xG 0.33–0.78 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser13:03
xG 0.79–0.13 (86%)attempts 22–6goals 1–2
- Brown – Kolyachonok11:01
xG 0.84–0.30 (74%)attempts 21–5goals 3–1
- Välimäki – Kesselring16:36
xG 0.58–0.77 (43%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko9:55
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato3:52
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Hunt – Zary8:57
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Mangiapane – Rooney – Duehr2:00
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov17:24
xG 0.88–0.63 (58%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
- Pachal – Okhotiuk9:31
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
- Andersson – Kylington15:06
xG 0.66–0.83 (44%)attempts 12–22goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).