Mon, Apr 15, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 28 | 25 | 05 | 03 | 421 |
| DET | 17 | 111 | 215 | 12 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Lane Hutson, David Savard · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 6:15MTLJustin BarronAssists: Josh Anderson, Jake Evans · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 8:11DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 5:15MTLRafael Harvey-PinardAssists: Jake Evans, Johnathan Kovacevic · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 15:26MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P2 15:59DETJ.T. CompherAssists: David Perron, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 10:38DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Olli Maatta · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 18:43DETLucas RaymondAssists: David Perron, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.25 xG4–4
- OT 4:35DETLucas RaymondGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (1)
- P2 6:43MTLMichael Pezzetta: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Newhook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský16:38
xG 1.00–0.29 (77%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Armia – Newhook11:24
xG 0.64–0.42 (61%)attempts 9–16goals 1–3
- Anderson – Evans – Harvey-Pinard10:52
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Pezzetta – Ylonen6:59
xG 0.02–0.36 (6%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Hutson19:19
xG 1.26–0.62 (67%)attempts 17–25goals 1–1
- Savard – Matheson2:57
xG 0.02–0.08 (19%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Harris13:03
xG 0.53–0.72 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 2–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Fabbri – Sprong3:57
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Sprong – Czarnik – Veleno4:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Copp – Fischer – Veleno2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond15:16
xG 0.54–0.76 (42%)attempts 24–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Gostisbehere16:38
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Petry – Edvinsson13:58
xG 0.54–0.88 (38%)attempts 21–12goals 0–2
- Chiarot – Seider21:17
xG 0.58–1.00 (37%)attempts 28–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).