Tue, Apr 16, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 015 | 116 | 140 |
| VAN | 212 | 110 | 19 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:00VANTyler MyersSHAssists: Teddy Blueger, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 13:28VANNils HoglanderGWGAssists: Elias Pettersson, Ilya Mikheyev · Snap, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 1:58VANDakota JoshuaAssists: Conor Garland, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 10:56CGYBrayden PachalAssists: Nazem Kadri, Ilya Solovyov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 15:02VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:28VANDakota Joshua: Elbowing2 min
- P2 9:49VANIan Cole: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:49CGYMartin Pospisil: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:40VANNils Hoglander: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:40VANConor Garland: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:40CGYAdam Klapka: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:40CGYAdam Klapka: Misconduct10 min
- P2 16:40VANConor Garland: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:35CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:44CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:44VANNils Hoglander: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:44CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Huberdeau – Hunt – Zary8:14
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Kadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko11:10
xG 0.51–0.83 (38%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato10:37
xG 0.17–0.58 (23%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Mangiapane – Rooney – Klapka5:04
xG 0.01–0.52 (2%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Andersson – Kylington16:34
xG 0.71–0.72 (50%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Kylington – Miromanov2:02
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pachal – Solovyov12:19
xG 0.10–0.52 (16%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Hoglander – Mikheyev8:17
xG 0.83–0.09 (90%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Miller – Boeser – Suter9:20
xG 0.75–0.31 (71%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Joshua – Garland8:00
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Blueger – Lafferty – Podkolzin9:15
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes17:17
xG 1.38–0.48 (74%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Myers – Soucy12:35
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Cole – Zadorov12:44
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).