Thu, Apr 18, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Seattle Kraken 4, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 07 | 111 | 39 | 427 |
| MIN | 17 | 05 | 212 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04MINKirill KaprizovPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 11:00SEAMatty BeniersPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 6:38SEAYanni GourdeSHAssists: Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 11:13MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Matt Boldy, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 17:20SEATye KartyeAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jared McCann · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 18:14SEAYanni GourdeENGWGAssists: Brandon Tanev, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–2
- P3 18:55MINBrock FaberPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:30SEAOliver Bjorkstrand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:24MINAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:37MINMarcus Johansson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:32MINMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:56SEAJared McCann: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:41SEABrandon Tanev: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:01SEAJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – McCann – Tolvanen9:16
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Bellemare – Tanev7:15
xG 0.15–0.05 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Burakovsky – Beniers11:15
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Kartye8:34
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Evans14:15
xG 0.73–0.44 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin12:00
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Borgen13:16
xG 0.14–0.21 (41%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy5:27
xG 0.15–0.00 (97%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi2:40
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Khusnutdinov5:22
xG 0.01–0.35 (2%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Rossi – Ohgren6:35
xG 0.07–0.55 (12%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chisholm3:16
xG 0.24–0.07 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian3:11
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Brodin – Chisholm2:35
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).