Tue, Oct 8, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 4, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 15 | 211 | 428 |
| FLA | 417 | 18 | 110 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:27FLASam BennettAssists: Evan Rodrigues · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 7:31FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Anton Lundell, Sam Reinhart · Poke, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 15:33BOSPavel ZachaSHAssists: Elias Lindholm, Andrew Peeke · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 18:34FLASam ReinhartSHAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P1 19:34FLASam BennettAssists: A.J. Greer · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 9:12FLAJonah GadjovichGWGAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Uvis Balinskis · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–5
- P2 12:32BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: John Beecher, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 6:26FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–6
- P3 16:51BOSTrent FredericAssists: Justin Brazeau · Snap, 0.16 xG3–6
- P3 18:15BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:55FLAA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:55BOSMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:18BOSTrent Frederic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:50BOSNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:22FLAA.J. Greer: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:32BOSCole Koepke: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:16BOSMax Jones: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:40FLAAnton Lundell: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:26FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:26BOSTrent Frederic: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:26FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:37BOSMax Jones: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:16BOSNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:03FLAUvis Balinskis: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Frederic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKastelic – Koepke – Beecher6:54
xG 0.91–0.15 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Geekie5:58
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Zacha8:06
xG 0.29–0.71 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Frederic – Jones – Brazeau6:43
xG 0.23–1.04 (18%)attempts 4–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Peeke12:42
xG 1.10–1.00 (52%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Lindholm – McAvoy10:36
xG 0.59–0.88 (40%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Carlo – Lohrei11:31
xG 0.18–1.18 (13%)attempts 6–15goals 1–3
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestLuostarinen – Lundell – Samoskevich7:54
xG 1.02–0.34 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart6:58
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Bennett – Rodrigues – Tkachuk7:33
xG 0.37–0.33 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Greer – Gadjovich – Boqvist6:29
xG 0.16–0.30 (34%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Balinskis2:08
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Forsling2:55
xG 0.37–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling10:39
xG 1.20–0.93 (56%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).