Thu, Oct 10, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 4, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 26 | 05 | 213 | 424 |
| BOS | 313 | 210 | 16 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:26MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Joel Armia, Lane Hutson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:04BOSCharlie McAvoyPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 12:18MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 13:24BOSMark KastelicAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Cole Koepke · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P1 18:23BOSElias LindholmAssists: Nikita Zadorov, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 15:56BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.17 xG2–4
- P2 16:51BOSCole KoepkeGWGAssists: John Beecher, Brandon Carlo · Poke, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 9:05MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Oliver Kapanen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 15:43MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jake Evans, Joel Armia · Snap, 0.18 xG4–5
- P3 16:00BOSMark KastelicAssists: Cole Koepke, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:24MTLCayden Primeau: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:36BOSNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:58MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:26BOSTrent Frederic: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:56MTLLane Hutson: Holding2 min
- P2 9:38BOSCharlie Coyle: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:07MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:01BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:06MTLCole Caufield: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:35BOSCharlie McAvoy: Delaying game2 min
- P3 17:05BOSBrad Marchand: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDach – Newhook – Slafkovský3:46
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans3:47
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Armia – Evans3:27
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield3:47
xG 0.10–0.12 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Hutson12:28
xG 0.53–0.27 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Savard – Hutson2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Barron – Xhekaj2:04
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKastelic – Koepke – Beecher5:23
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 3–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Zacha6:40
xG 0.34–0.09 (78%)attempts 8–1goals 2–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Geekie8:42
xG 0.49–0.28 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Tufte – Frederic – Brazeau5:45
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – McAvoy12:42
xG 0.97–0.52 (65%)attempts 20–13goals 2–1
- Lindholm – Carlo10:42
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 2–1
- Wotherspoon – Peeke10:06
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 4–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).