Thu, Oct 10, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Detroit Red Wings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 314 | 27 | 628 |
| DET | 113 | 111 | 18 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 15:02PITAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 2:55PITAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 3:53PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 5:28PITMarcus PetterssonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG4–1
- P2 12:32DETVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Moritz Seider, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 1:42PITErik KarlssonPPAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 8:13DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Lucas Raymond · Slap, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 12:21PITKevin HayesAssists: Cody Glass · Snap, 0.11 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:24PITLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:01PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:50DETAndrew Copp: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:28PITCody Glass: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:54DETSimon Edvinsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:27PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:48PITNoel Acciari: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Bunting – O'Connor10:41
xG 0.90–0.52 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Hayes – Acciari – Glass7:02
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Eller – Puljujarvi – McGroarty8:48
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Beauvillier12:25
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson13:11
xG 1.26–0.34 (79%)attempts 17–10goals 3–1
- Graves – St. Ivany11:44
xG 0.35–0.05 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Letang – Pettersson3:00
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMotte – Veleno – Berggren7:49
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Copp – Fischer – Veleno2:19
xG 0.04–0.01 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Copp – Fischer – Rasmussen8:11
xG 0.19–0.32 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond12:29
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 11–9goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider10:59
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Petry – Edvinsson7:24
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Seider – Edvinsson4:22
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).