Thu, Oct 10, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 5, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 122 | 07 | 310 | 11 | 540 |
| SJS | 29 | 217 | 03 | 00 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:01SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: William Eklund, Jake Walman · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:51STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Philip Broberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 17:14SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Jan Rutta · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 8:26SJSFabian ZetterlundPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 17:37SJSBarclay GoodrowSHUnassisted · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 2:54STLRadek FaksaAssists: Nathan Walker · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 6:11STLRyan SuterAssists: Alexey Toropchenko · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 19:13STLJustin FaulkAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 0:45STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Colton Parayko, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:53STLNathan Walker: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:49STLKasperi Kapanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:55SJSCody Ceci: Holding2 min
- P3 10:07SJSDanil Gushchin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Holloway – Neighbours6:45
xG 0.89–0.07 (93%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kapanen – Joseph6:52
xG 1.00–0.55 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
- Schenn – Thomas – Neighbours4:27
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko10:30
xG 0.32–0.15 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko18:44
xG 0.97–0.42 (70%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
- Suter – Kessel9:58
xG 0.96–0.47 (67%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
- Faulk – Broberg14:09
xG 0.67–0.75 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Goodrow – Wennberg – Kunin8:52
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Eklund – Celebrini13:00
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 10–22goals 2–1
- Dellandrea – Sturm – Gushchin6:51
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 3–5goals 0–2
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Smith9:44
xG 0.48–1.12 (30%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Thrun2:39
xG 0.05–0.01 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Benning – Thrun9:53
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Ceci – Walman17:10
xG 0.37–0.69 (35%)attempts 13–25goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).