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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 12, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.

TOR winsPIT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:19Shot by Pettersson, saved by Stolarz
  3. P1 2:35Shot by Karlsson, saved by Stolarz
  4. P1 2:41Shot by Karlsson, saved by Stolarz
  5. P1 3:59Shot by Knies, saved by Blomqvist
  6. P1 5:06Shot by Holmberg, saved by Blomqvist
  7. P1 6:00Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Blomqvist
  8. P1 6:04Shot by Rielly, saved by Blomqvist
  9. P1 7:33Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Blomqvist
  10. P1 9:13Shot by O'Connor, saved by Stolarz
  11. P1 9:39Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Blomqvist
  12. P1 10:04Benoit: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Reaves, Lorentz, Timmins, Kampf, Benoit · PIT Karlsson, Hayes, Pettersson, Acciari, Glass

  13. P1 10:58Goal by Letang (Crosby, Malkin)4v5+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tanev, McCabe, Lorentz, Holmberg · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Karlsson, Rust

  14. P1 13:39Shot by Beauvillier, saved by Stolarz
  15. P1 14:50Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Blomqvist
  16. P1 17:21Shot by Matthews, saved by Blomqvist
  17. P1 18:47Shot by Kampf, saved by Blomqvist
  18. P1 19:55Shot by McMann, saved by Blomqvist
  19. P1 0:00Period end
  20. P2 0:00Period start
  21. P2 0:50Goal by Nylander (Domi)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Domi, Nylander, Benoit, Knies · PIT Malkin, Rakell, Grzelcyk, Bunting, St. Ivany

  22. P2 1:11Shot by Rakell, saved by Stolarz
  23. P2 1:29Shot by Eller, saved by Stolarz
  24. P2 1:52Shot by Rust, saved by Stolarz
  25. P2 2:03Shot by Letang, saved by Stolarz
  26. P2 2:19Shot by Grzelcyk, saved by Stolarz
  27. P2 2:53Goal by Knies (Rielly, Marner)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tanev, Rielly, Marner, Matthews, Knies · PIT Karlsson, Hayes, Pettersson, Acciari, Glass

  28. P2 3:40Shot by Reaves, saved by Blomqvist
  29. P2 4:23McMann: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Domi, Nylander, Timmins, Benoit, McMann · PIT Letang, Eller, Grzelcyk, O'Connor, McGroarty

  30. P2 5:16Shot by Crosby, saved by Stolarz4v5
  31. P2 5:31Shot by Rust, saved by Stolarz4v5
  32. P2 8:01Shot by Bunting, saved by Stolarz
  33. P2 8:16Shot by McMann, saved by Blomqvist
  34. P2 10:33Shot by Nylander, saved by Blomqvist
  35. P2 10:46Shot by Robertson, saved by Blomqvist
  36. P2 13:21Shot by Marner, saved by Blomqvist
  37. P2 14:24Pacioretty: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Pacioretty, Rielly, McCabe, Holmberg, McMann · PIT Crosby, Graves, Beauvillier, St. Ivany, McGroarty

  38. P2 16:13Shot by Bunting, saved by Stolarz4v5
  39. P2 16:26Shot by Glass, saved by Stolarz
  40. P2 17:21Shot by Matthews, saved by Blomqvist6v5
  41. P2 17:23St. Ivany: Interference (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Domi, Nylander, Matthews, Robertson · PIT Pettersson, Beauvillier, Acciari, St. Ivany, O'Connor

  42. P2 17:34Shot by Rielly, saved by Blomqvist5v4
  43. P2 18:48Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Blomqvist5v4
  44. P2 19:06Shot by Matthews, saved by Blomqvist5v4
  45. P2 19:44Shot by McMann, saved by Blomqvist
  46. P2 19:57Rust: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tanev, Rielly, Domi, Robertson, McMann · PIT Crosby, Karlsson, Rust, Pettersson, Acciari

  47. P2 19:58Shot by Matthews, saved by Blomqvist5v4
  48. P2 0:00Period end5v4
  49. P3 0:00Period start
  50. P3 0:24Shot by O'Connor, saved by Stolarz5v4
  51. P3 2:12Goal by Marner, unassisted+14 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tanev, McCabe, Marner, Matthews, Knies · PIT Crosby, Letang, Rust, Pettersson, Beauvillier

  52. P3 2:28Shot by Kampf, saved by Blomqvist
  53. P3 2:57Shot by Matthews, saved by Blomqvist
  54. P3 4:44Benoit: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Domi, Nylander, Timmins, Benoit, Robertson · PIT Malkin, Karlsson, Rakell, Pettersson, Bunting

  55. P3 5:17Shot by Crosby, saved by Stolarz4v5
  56. P3 7:34Shot by Timmins, saved by Blomqvist
  57. P3 8:28Shot by Matthews, saved by Blomqvist
  58. P3 8:44Shot by Matthews, saved by Blomqvist
  59. P3 12:29Goal by Rakell (Malkin)+11 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Reaves, Ekman-Larsson, Lorentz, Timmins, Kampf · PIT Malkin, Rakell, Graves, Bunting, St. Ivany

  60. P3 12:38Shot by Eller, saved by Stolarz
  61. P3 13:36Shot by Nylander, saved by Blomqvist
  62. P3 14:26Pettersson: Hooking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Domi, Nylander, Matthews, Timmins, Robertson · PIT Eller, Karlsson, Pettersson, O'Connor, McGroarty

  63. P3 14:38Shot by Knies, saved by Blomqvist5v4
  64. P3 15:36Shot by Matthews, saved by Blomqvist5v4
  65. P3 16:53Shot by Crosby, saved by Stolarz
  66. P3 17:56Shot by Eller, saved by Stolarz
  67. P3 19:09Shot by Malkin, saved by Stolarz5v6
  68. P3 19:38Goal by Nylander (Domi)5v6+2 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tanev, McCabe, Domi, Nylander, Knies · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Karlsson, Rust, Rakell

  69. P3 0:00Period end
  70. P3 0:00Final