Sat, Oct 12, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 019 | 212 | 19 | 340 |
| CGY | 29 | 17 | 316 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Martin Pospisil, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 7:43CGYMacKenzie WeegarPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Andrei Kuzmenko · Slap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 7:05PHITravis KonecnySHAssists: Scott Laughton, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 14:41CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 18:11PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Bobby Brink, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 14:46CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Blake Coleman, Connor Zary · Snap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 15:34CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Martin Pospisil, Jake Bean · Snap, 0.23 xG2–5
- P3 17:11PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Matvei Michkov, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 18:16CGYNazem KadriENAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:22PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:22CGYBrayden Pachal: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:19PHIRyan Poehling: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:08CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:50CGYSamuel Honzek: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:41PHIRyan Poehling: Interference2 min
- P2 12:48PHITyson Foerster: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 12:48PHITyson Foerster: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:48CGYMartin Pospisil: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:48PHITyson Foerster: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 14:06PHITravis Sanheim: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:29PHIErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:32CGYConnor Zary: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:49CGYAdam Klapka: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Farabee – Brink5:14
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Foerster2:10
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Konecny – Frost – Michkov6:17
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Tippett – Poehling – Foerster3:31
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York15:28
xG 0.79–0.53 (60%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- York – Drysdale2:13
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Ristolainen2:52
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Mantha – Pospisil6:40
xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Kadri – Kuzmenko – Honzek7:31
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka7:09
xG 0.11–0.27 (28%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary11:14
xG 0.51–0.74 (41%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBean – Pachal12:21
xG 0.63–0.52 (55%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Andersson – Bahl12:04
xG 0.64–0.63 (50%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Weegar – Miromanov13:14
xG 0.47–0.66 (42%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).