Mon, Oct 14, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 4, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 210 | 07 | 426 |
| BOS | 112 | 26 | 09 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53BOSJohn BeecherAssists: Mark Kastelic, Mason Lohrei · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:37FLAAnton LundellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 11:51FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 5:08BOSBrandon CarloAssists: Cole Koepke, Mark Kastelic · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 9:39FLASam ReinhartSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
- P2 12:59FLAAnton LundellGWGAssists: Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 14:07BOSMason LohreiAssists: Mark Kastelic, John Beecher · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:31BOSPavel Zacha: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:12FLAAdam Boqvist: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:23BOSPavel Zacha: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 11:23FLAA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:45BOSCharlie McAvoy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:54BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference2 min
- P1 12:54FLANate Schmidt: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:54BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:23FLANiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
- P1 18:05BOSNikita Zadorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:09FLAA.J. Greer: Interference2 min
- P3 11:02FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:10BOSDavid Pastrnak: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:10FLACarter Verhaeghe: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:10BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:10FLACarter Verhaeghe: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:10BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Beecher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Boqvist – Samoskevich8:00
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Rodrigues11:33
xG 0.43–0.44 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:02
xG 0.14–0.28 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Boqvist5:03
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling12:10
xG 0.43–0.39 (52%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Kulikov – Mikkola10:44
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Coyle – Geekie4:26
xG 0.30–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Frederic – Brazeau – Poitras4:04
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Zacha10:15
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – Frederic – Geekie2:08
xG 0.01–0.08 (15%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo10:07
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Peeke – Lohrei13:25
xG 0.44–0.72 (38%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Zadorov – McAvoy12:53
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).