Tue, Oct 15, 2024·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 17 | 111 | 226 |
| CAR | 08 | 213 | 210 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:16NJDJack HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt, Johnathan Kovacevic · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 10:55CARSeth JarvisAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 19:23CARShayne GostisbehereAssists: Martin Necas, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 10:16CARJackson BlakeGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 15:16NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 18:24CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:17NJDNathan Bastian: Interference2 min
- P2 11:55CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:42CARJackson Blake: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:27CARJordan Martinook: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Noesen – Cotter9:43
xG 0.68–0.59 (54%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Meier – Bratt – Hughes10:24
xG 0.87–0.81 (52%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer11:00
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Palat – Lazar – Bastian7:48
xG 0.14–1.43 (9%)attempts 4–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Kovacevic14:53
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Nemec2:49
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Casey – Nemec11:11
xG 0.41–0.73 (36%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRobinson – Drury – Blake7:30
xG 0.70–0.40 (64%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis11:18
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Roslovic – Necas – Kotkaniemi10:54
xG 0.65–0.87 (43%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier11:03
xG 0.46–0.84 (36%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Walker15:16
xG 0.92–0.36 (72%)attempts 21–6goals 2–0
- Orlov – Chatfield14:49
xG 0.90–0.58 (61%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin18:28
xG 1.20–1.52 (44%)attempts 29–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).